It is losing territory in Iraq and Syria, is wracked with internal paranoia, faces financial crisis and is beset by enemies from above and on all sides. Everything points, its enemies say, to an implosion and the eventual demise of the Islamic State (IS) group.

This week, reports said IS had killed its Mosul finance minister for “treachery” and that foreign volunteers were being executed for desertion. These and the recent imprisonment of 11 regional leaders have been interpreted by some as indicators of paranoia within the group…

Atwan’s analysis is echoed by The Soufan Group, a security intelligence organisation, which warns that in light of a deteriorating military situation, IS will escalate its efforts to ignite sectarian tensions in Iraq by targeting Shias.

“In the face of increased military pressure, the so-called Islamic State is using suicide bombers in Iraq in the hopes of initiating an escalating series of violent reprisals, thus triggering a broader sectarian war,” it said…

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